APPROXIMATIONS OF RISK PREMIUMS AND THE RISK-FREE
RATE
Because U.S. Government securities have virtually no default risk
due to the Government's ability to raise taxes or print money, these assets are
referred to as risk-free. As such, their current rate of return is used as a
proxy for the risk-free rate.
Investors face different types of risks. Equity risk, small stock
risk, bond default risk, and bond horizon risk all have premiums that reward
investors with larger average returns for taking such risks. Ibbotson Associates
calculated total nominal returns compounded annually for various asset classes
for the years 1926 through 1998. Their results will give you a good idea of the
average premium awarded for taking on risk.
|
Treasury
bills -- 3.8%
Intermediate-term government bonds -- 5.3%
Long-term government bonds -- 5.3%
Long-term corporate bonds -- 5.8%
Large-company stock returns -- 11.2%
Small-company stock returns -- 12.4% | |
As you can see, the return for investing in large company stock
returns has been much larger than the return provided by Treasury bills. In this
case, the investor was rewarded for taking on equity risk. Similarly, the higher
return provided by small stocks in relation to large stocks is a premium for
taking on small stock risk.
Notice that the return on long-term corporate bonds was higher
than the return provided by long-term government bonds. This is a premium for
taking on bond default risk.
You can also see that the risk premium on bond horizon risk
resulted in a higher return for intermediate and long-term government bonds
compared to short-term Treasury bills.
In each of these cases, risk has been rewarded by higher
returns. Of course, this data is a compilation of many assets over the course of
73 years. The future is never predictable, but these historical returns should
give you a sense of how various risks are rewarded.